Opec's oil market share to shrink [Oil & Gas News]
(Oil & Gas News Via Acquire Media NewsEdge) Making its first 2015 forecast in a monthly report, Opec said demand for its oil next year would average 29.37 million barrels per day (bpd), down 310,000 bpd from 2014.The report by the 12-member Opec points to ample supplies next year, especially if there is further progress in resolving outages in Opec countries Libya, Iraq and Iran. Those production problems have curbed supply this year and helped support prices above $100 a barrel."Even if next year's world economic growth turns out to be better than expected and crude oil demand outperforms expectations, Opec will have sufficient supply to provide to the market," the report from Opec's Vienna headquarters said. The report is also a further illustration that technology for extracting oil and gas from shale is, for now, reducing dependence on Opec.Opec also forecast a recovery in demand next year as economic growth gathers pace, predicting that world oil use will expand by 1.21 mbpd, up from this year's 1.13 mbpd increase.But non-Opec supply, the source of two in every three barrels, is expected to increase next year by 1.31 mbpd, more than demand, with the US leading the way.Opec expects US production to average 13.12 mbpd in 2015, up 880,000 bpd from 2014 and the highest increase of all non-Opec countries. Still, it warned that a drop in oil prices – among other risks – could dampen the expansion."Despite the anticipated strong growth from tight oil developments in 2015, a certain level of risk remains, mainly related to the current oil price, infrastructure and environmental issues," Opec said.Opec's report also indicates that the demand for its crude next year will fall further below its output target of 30 mbpd. At a meeting in June, Opec agreed to retain the 30 mbpd target for the second half of 2014. Protests and unrest in Libya, Western sanctions on Iran and fighting in Iraq have taken their toll on Opec production in recent months, keeping output sometimes below the target.
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